Journal of Wetland Ecobiology
Abstract: (8 Views)
Runoff regime variations in river basins result from the combined effects of climate variability and human activities. Quantifying the relative contribution of these factors is essential for sustainable water resources management, land-use planning, and the development of effective climate change adaptation strategies. This study aims to quantify the respective contributions of climate variability and human activities to monthly runoff changes in the Karkheh River Basin using a data-driven approach based on the Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm. To this end, trends in precipitation, air temperature, and runoff were analyzed using the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test, while the change point in the runoff time series was identified using the Pettitt test and the double mass curve method. Subsequently, the SVM model was trained using data from the reference period and then applied to reconstruct natural runoff during the post-change period, enabling the quantification of the respective impacts of climate variability and human activities on runoff variations. The results indicated that the hydrological regime of the basin underwent a significant change in May 1999. Accordingly, the periods before and after this date were considered as the pre-change and post-change periods, respectively. The attribution analysis revealed that human activities accounted for 64.2% of the observed runoff reduction, whereas climate variability contributed 35.8%. These findings indicate that although climate variability has played a significant role in altering the runoff regime, human activities have been the dominant driver of hydrological changes in the Karkheh River Basin. Therefore, implementing demand-side water management, controlling excessive water withdrawals, improving water-use efficiency, optimizing land-use practices, and adopting climate change adaptation strategies are essential measures for mitigating runoff decline and achieving sustainable water resources management in the basin.
Article number: 4
Keywords: Climate variability, Human activities, Monthly runoff changes, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Karkheh River Basin, Attribution analysis
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