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Risk Assessment of Oil Well Blowout in the Hoor-Al-Azim Wetland Using Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis (FFTA)
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Mostafa Satiarvand   , Katayon Varshosaz , Neda Orak , Mahboobeh Cheraghi , Elham Mobark hassan |
| Islamic Azad University, Ahvaz |
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Abstract: (23 Views) |
Aim & Objective: The oil and gas industry faces numerous safety challenges, among which oil well blowout is one of the most critical. This phenomenon can lead to catastrophic events such as explosions, environmental pollution, and financial losses. Therefore, the present study aims to assess the risk of an oil well blowout located in the Hoor-Al-Azim wetland using Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis (FFTA) and Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA).
Materials and Methods: In this study, FMEA was applied to identify hazards, and FFTA was used to analyze the probability of blowout occurrence. A team of experts was formed, and field data and technical documentation were collected. Subsequently, the identified risks were ranked and prioritized using the FMEA method.
Results: The findings indicated that the probability of blowout occurrence was 2.5×10^(-2). The FMEA results showed that most of the identified risks had a Risk Priority Number (RPN) higher than 100. Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis revealed that negative differential pressure and sufficient formation permeability were among the most influential factors in the occurrence of a blowout.
Conclusion: FMEA results indicated that blowout, and consequently well eruption, is one of the major hazards in drilling operations. The combined use of FMEA and FFTA methods, due to their capability to identify and analyze single-point failures and interactions among various failures, allows for more accurate risk identification and better estimation of blowout probability. Moreover, by correcting and reducing failure rates such as operator error, negative differential pressure, and sufficient formation permeability, the likelihood of a blowout can be significantly reduced.
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Article number: 2 |
| Keywords: Oil well kick, Risk assessment, Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis (FFTA), Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Drilling safety |
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Full-Text [PDF 689 kb]
(25 Downloads)
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Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
Special
Received: 2025/05/27 | Accepted: 2025/06/29 | Published: 2025/06/29
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